The demand outlook over the next few months appears relatively weak, with little change in policy to give shippers confidence on how to proceed. Consumption is holding up for now despite declining confidence and a weakening job market, but this trend offers little indication that conditions will improve.
Weak demand does not necessarily mean the market will loosen in this unusual environment, as capacity continues to exit the trucking market and faces additional pressure from stricter regulatory requirements. While this increased pressure is unlikely to flip the market overnight, the departure of lower-cost providers is expected to have an inflationary effect on rates over time.
With inventory levels thinning, some volatility is anticipated—particularly in outlying areas where carriers have less presence—during the holiday season. As long as demand remains stagnant, a sustained market rebound is unlikely. Instead, the market is expected to experience growing inconsistency, with periods of sharp tightening followed by sudden loosening.