From a demand perspective, July is shaping up to look like a typical July—historically one of the softer months of the year for trucking, with a strong start to maritime shipping’s peak season.
Inventory levels will be the key factor to monitor as imports recover. If companies have sufficiently depleted their inventories, there could be an unseasonal push to restock. However, the underlying economic signals suggest any such surge would likely be short-lived.
Both companies and consumers remain increasingly cautious about making investments and purchases. While demand hasn’t seen a sharp decline, it has stagnated. Meanwhile, capacity continues to erode. Emerging regulatory actions could intensify this trend by both constraining existing capacity and raising barriers to entry.
The most telling data point is the resilience of rejection rates despite declining demand. This suggests that the supply side of the market is weakening more rapidly than the demand side. If confidence in the economy returns or demand spikes unexpectedly, the truckload market could shift dramatically.
For now, demand appears to be falling too quickly for that scenario to materialize. There’s little indication this will change in the coming month—though if 2025 has proven anything, it’s that few long-term certainties can be relied upon.