The disruption from Winter Storm Fern is expected to linger into March, though at diminishing levels. Most statistical models suggest that while the market will recover from the weather event, it will likely settle at tighter levels than last year. The key question is: how much tighter?
In the post-COVID environment, the spring months have generally been the softest period for the freight market. If that pattern holds, much of the seasonally weak stretch will be spent working through residual holiday and weather-related distortions.
The refrigerated sector appears particularly vulnerable, especially if produce volumes surprise to the upside at any point. Overall, the market should continue in a slow recovery phase, but there is added risk from spring replenishment cycles that typically emerge in mid- to late March. That dynamic could add another layer of volatility to the month.
April is expected to remain relatively soft, with Roadcheck Week in May representing the next major potential disruptor for the market.