It’s anyone’s guess what lies ahead from an economic and trade standpoint over the next few months. In the near term, these developments may not have a major impact on transportation, as many consumers and companies are maintaining their current patterns. However, this wait-and-see strategy will likely come under pressure as some tariffs begin to influence inflation and product availability.
The situation is complex, with many moving parts, making it difficult to fully untangle. Among transportation sectors, the truckload space may be the most resilient in the face of potential economic stagnation, as it has already been operating in recession-like conditions for years. That doesn’t make it recession-proof, but it also hasn’t fully recovered from what was one of the most severe downturns in recent memory.
From a domestic transportation perspective, the period from April into early May has been relatively uneventful since the pandemic – and this year appears to be following the same trend. That could change with International Roadcheck, which runs from May 13–15 this year. After several years of minimal disruption, last May saw a noticeable impact from the event. If market conditions remain soft, many drivers may voluntarily park their trucks rather than risk being shut down or fined during inspections. The economics of operating just don’t add up in that scenario, and this could pull a significant amount of capacity off the road.
International Roadcheck will be the first major scheduled event to watch in 2025.