April has been a soft spot for the domestic freight market since the end of the pandemic era, and if that holds true, the rest of the year will be a wild ride for surface transportation markets. Road Check week is an obvious candidate for disruption, and that should hold true, though it is worth noting that this week tends to be less disruptive during already volatile environments. In 2021, rejection rates increased only around 70 bps, but they were already above 24%. The point is not to expect a complete blowout during this period, but rather a slight exacerbation of the tightness that should persist into Memorial Day. The most exposed shippers will be those whose rates are low relative to the market.
While there is no strong indication that demand will increase significantly at this point, there is also nothing to suggest it will weaken or fail to strengthen seasonally. Some economic concerns remain, specifically around a stagnant labor market and housing, but they are not acting as heavy drags on freight at this point. The market should remain in a state of moderate to high pressure in the coming months.